Monday, December 12, 2016

Core Portfolio (9 Dec 16)

A long-term investment that forms the foundation of an investor’s portfolio.  A core portfolio strategy is to primarily own an investment that tracks the overall market.  A solid core holding gives an investor the flexibility to take a chance with riskier investments in other areas of the portfolio.

Calendar
Year
Dow 30
(UDOW)
Nasdaq 100
(TQQQ)
S&P 500
(UPRO)
Russell 2000
(URTY)
2016
47.2%
13.4%
33.8%
70.5%
2015
-8.6%
17.2%
-5.2%
-21.0%
2014
26.0%
57.1%
38.0%
5.9%
2013
107.1%
139.7%
118.5%
147.9%
2012
26.4%
52.3%
46.8%
44.6%
2011
9.1%
-8.0%
-11.9%
-37.6%
2010
51.4%
78.1%
36.3%
90.1%
Avg Ret.
39.6%
50.0%
36.6%
42.9%

A properly constructed core portfolio of leveraged ETFs will tend to outperform the benchmarks.  A core portfolio strategy also results in a portfolio that is easy to monitor and rebalance because it only contains a few investments.

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Short-Term Trend (9 Dec 16)

When the stock trades above the 20-SMA, it is considered to be in a short-term uptrend.  When it trades below the 20-SMA, the short-term trend is considered down.

Benchmark
Symbol
Price
20-SMA
Market Trend
S&P 500
SPY
226.51
220.48
Uptrend
Dow 30
DIA
197.69
191.15
Uptrend
Russell 2000
IWM
138.31
132.35
Uptrend
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
119.50
117.47
Uptrend
 
If the short-term trend is up, use bullish leveraged ETFs.  If the short-term trend is down, use inverse leveraged ETFs.

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Total Return YTD % (2 Dec 16)

The Total Return Historical Data shows how each index has performed on a yearly basis.  Over the long-term, the stock market has proven to be a very good investment, however from year to year the returns can be very volatile.

Calendar
Year
S&P 500
(UPRO)
Russell 2000
(URTY)
Nasdaq 100
(TQQQ)
Wilsh 5000
(VTI)
2016
22.2%
44.8%
3.0%
10.2%
2015
-5.2%
-21.0%
17.2%
0.4%
2014
38.0%
5.9%
57.1%
12.5%
2013
118.5%
147.9%
139.7%
33.5%
2012
46.8%
44.6%
52.3%
16.5%
Avg Ret.
44.1%
44.4%
53.9%
14.6%

Monitor Market Progress:   You must monitor general market progress to make sure you are on track to reach your goal.  If you have adopted the 12% growth goal, you can break it down into a monthly goal.  As long as the general market is on track to reach your goal, 1% a month, there should be dozens of Leveraged ETFs that are also on track.

Short-Term Trend (2 Dec 16)

When the stock trades above the 20-SMA, it is considered to be in a short-term uptrend.  When it trades below the 20-SMA, the short-term trend is considered down.

Benchmark
Symbol
Price
20-SMA
Market Trend
S&P 500
SPY
219.68
217.99
Uptrend
Russell 2000
IWM
130.90
128.37
Uptrend
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
115.70
117.00
Downtrend
Wilshire 5000
VTI
113.31
112.32
Uptrend

If the short-term trend is up, use bullish leveraged ETFs.  If the short-term trend is down, use inverse leveraged ETFs.

Leveraged ETFs (2 Dec 16): SOXL $49.31

Buy (50) shares SOXL @ $49.31
Target Price (10%): $54.30

Leveraged ETFs (2 Dec 16): TNA $91.75

Buy (27) shares TNA @ $91.75
Target Price (10%): $101.00

Leveraged ETFs (2 Dec 16): URTY $107.35

Buy (23) shares URTY @ $107.35
Target Price (10%): $118.10

Leveraged ETFs (2 Dec 16): FAS $37.17

Buy (67) shares FAS @ $37.17
Target Price (10%): $40.90

Leveraged ETFs (2 Dec 16): RUSL $80.19

Buy (31) shares RUSL @ $80.19
Target Price (10%): $88.20

Leveraged ETFs (2 Dec 16): BRZU $26.10

Buy (95) shares BRZU @ $26.10
Target Price (10%): $28.80