Determine Market Trend (25 Sep 15)

Bull Market, Pullback, Correction and Bear Market

(1)     Pullback: -5% off 52W High   (2) Correction: -10% off 52W High   (3) Bear Market: -20% off 52W High

Benchmark	Symbol	% off 52-Week High	Market Trend
S&P 500	SPY	-9.06%	Pullback
Nasdaq 100	QQQ	-10.03%	Correction
Dow Jones 30	DIA	-10.38%	Correction
Russell 2000	IWM	-13.32%	Correction

Traders who strive for consistency—their goal is to make money in all market environments.  Knowing whether you are in Bull Market, Bear Market or a Flat Market is equally important and key in assessing the potential for your trade.

Long Term Trend

The “big dog” of moving averages is the 200-day moving average.  If the index is trading above that level, the long-term trend is considered up; generally, the 200-day moving average is seen as a proxy for the long-term trend.

Benchmark	Symbol	Price	200-DMA	Market Trend
Dow Jones 30	DIA	162.88	174.62	Downtrend
S&P 500	SPY	192.87	204.57	Downtrend
Nasdaq 100	QQQ	102.92	106.41	Downtrend
Russell 2000	IWM	111.42	120.42	Downtrend

In an up-trending market, I will lengthen holding times and give my holdings more room to run.  In a wide trading range or a down-trending market, I use short holding times and grab profits quickly.    

Volatility Index (25 Sep 15): $VIX 83.10

The VIX has an inverse relationship to the price of the S&P 500. Thus, we often see the VIX making new highs as the market is making new lows. When the 2-period RSI of the VIX is above 90 we'll be looking to go long.

Nasdaq Summation Index (25 Sep 15): Bearish

The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) is a market breath indicator. When it turns higher, a greater number of stocks are advancing. When it turns lower, a greater number of stocks are declining.

Leveraged ETFs (25 Sep 15): URTY $73.26

Buy (35) shares URTY @ $73.26
Target Price (10%): $80.60

Leveraged ETFs (25 Sep 15): TNA $62.92

Buy (40) shares TNA @ $62.92
Target Price (10%): $69.30

Leveraged ETFs (25 Sep 15): CURE $27.51

Buy (91) shares CURE @ $27.51
Target Price (10%): $30.30

Leveraged ETFs (25 Sep 15): BIB $61.89

Buy (41) shares BIB @ $61.89
Target Price (10%): $68.10

Determine Market Trend (21 Sep 15)

Bull Market, Pullback, Correction and Bear Market

(1)     Pullback: -5% off 52W High   (2) Correction: -10% off 52W High   (3) Bear Market: -20% off 52W High

Benchmark	Symbol	% off 52-Week High	Market Trend
S&P 500	SPY	-7.37%	Pullback
Nasdaq 100	QQQ	-7.61%	Pullback
Dow Jones 30	DIA	-9.28%	Pullback
Russell 2000	IWM	-10.12%	Correction

Traders who strive for consistency—their goal is to make money in all market environments.  Knowing whether you are in Bull Market, Bear Market or a Flat Market is equally important and key in assessing the potential for your trade.

Volatility Index (21 Sep 15): $VIX 19.71

The VIX has an inverse relationship to the price of the S&P 500. Thus, we often see the VIX making new highs as the market is making new lows. When the 2-period RSI of the VIX is above 90 we'll be looking to go long.

Nasdaq Summation Index (21 Sep 15): Bullish

The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) is a market breath indicator. When it turns higher, a greater number of stocks are advancing. When it turns lower, a greater number of stocks are declining.

Long Stock (21 Sep 15): BLDR $15.31

Buy (164) shares BLDR @ $15.31
Target Price (10%): $16.90

Long Stock (21 Sep 15): SCI $28.22

Buy (89) shares SCI @ $28.22
Target Price (10%): $31.10

Long Stock (21 Sep 15): INCY $118.66

Buy (22) shares INCY @ $118.66
Target Price (10%): $130.60

Long Stock (21 Sep 15): MXIM $33.12

Buy (75) shares MXIM @ $33.12
Target Price (10%): $36.50

Determine Market Trend (11 Sep 15)

Bull Market, Pullback, Correction and Bear Market

(1)     Pullback: -5% off 52W High   (2) Correction: -10% off 52W High   (3) Bear Market: -20% off 52W High

Benchmark	Symbol	% off 52-Week High	Market Trend
S&P 500	SPY	-7.68%	Pullback
Nasdaq 100	QQQ	-7.71%	Pullback
Dow Jones 30	DIA	-9.71%	Pullback
Russell 2000	IWM	-10.39%	Correction

Traders who strive for consistency—their goal is to make money in all market environments.  Knowing whether you are in Bull Market, Bear Market or a Flat Market is equally important and key in assessing the potential for your trade.

Nasdaq Summation Index (11 Sep 15): Bullish

The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) is a market breath indicator. When it turns higher, a greater number of stocks are advancing. When it turns lower, a greater number of stocks are declining.

Long Stock (11 Sep 15): EFOI $16.43

Buy (150) shares EFOI @ $16.43
Target Price (10%): $18.10

Long Call (11 Sep 15): AEO $16.01

AEO $16.01
Buy (3) Jan 16 15 C @ $1.90
Target Price (30%): $2.50

Long Call (11 Sep 15): EXPR $19.32

 

EXPR $19.32

Buy (3) Jan 16 20 C @ $1.75

Target Price (30%): $2.30



Covered Call (11 Sep 15): TXMD $7.33

Buy (200) shares TXMD @ $7.33

Sell (2) Dec 15 7.50 C @ $2.00

Net Debit: $5.33   Return Assigned: 40.7%   (95 days)

Determine Market Trend (4 Sep 15)

Bull Market, Pullback, Correction and Bear Market

(1)     Pullback: -5% off 52W High   (2) Correction: -10% off 52W High   (3) Bear Market: -20% off 52W High

Benchmark	Symbol	% off 52-Week High	Market Trend
S&P 500	SPY	-9.67%	Pullback
Nasdaq 100	QQQ	-10.69%	Correction
Dow Jones 30	DIA	-11.60%	Correction
Russell 2000	IWM	-12.16%	Correction

Understanding stock market direction is critical to any position you take in the market.  Knowing whether you are in Bull Market, Bear Market or a Flat Market is equally important and key in assessing the potential for your trade.

Volatility Index (4 Sep 15): $VIX 61.79

The VIX has an inverse relationship to the price of the S&P 500. Thus, we often see the VIX making new highs as the market is making new lows. When the 2-period RSI of the VIX is above 90 we'll be looking to go long.

Nasdaq Summation Index (4 Sep 15): Bullish

The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) is a market breath indicator. When it turns higher, a greater number of stocks are advancing. When it turns lower, a greater number of stocks are declining.

Leveraged ETFs (4 Sep 15): UPRO $52.66

Buy (48) shares UPRO @ $52.66
Target Price (10%): $58.00

Leveraged ETFs (4 Sep 15): XIV $22.75

Buy (110) shares XIV @ $22.75
Target Price (10%): $25.10

Leveraged ETFs (4 Sep 15): URTY $75.78

Buy (33) shares URTY @ $75.78
Target Price (10%): $83.40

Leveraged ETFs (4 Sep 15): TQQQ $88.71

Buy (28) shares TQQQ @ $88.71
Target Price (10%): $97.60